11/14/2001 Reuters English News Service (C) Reuters Limited 2001.
The Energy Department's statistical arm, the Energy Information Administration, issued its annual report with demand and supply forecasts stretching out to 2020. U.S. energy demand is expected to increase by one-third over the next two decades, as businesses and consumers use more oil and electricity to fuel a growing American economy.
Growth in commercial buildings and personal travel, combined with slower increases in fuel efficiency for cars and trucks, is expected to account for the large increase in energy demand by 2020.
Domestic crude oil production is projected to decline slightly by 2020 to 5.6 million barrels per day (bpd). As a result, foreign imports are expected to account for 62 percent of U.S. oil supplies by 2020, up from 53 percent in 2000, the EIA said.
However, that rise is lower than the 64 percent-share for oil imports by 2020 that EIA forecast in its report last year. The difference is due to higher expected domestic production from new oil fields in Alaska's National Petroleum Reserve.
The National Petroleum Reserve, covering 23 million acres in northwestern Alaska, has been owned by the federal government since the 1920s for military fuel. In 1999, the Interior Department leased some tracts in the reserve to energy companies, which have reported at least two discoveries.
Another lease sale in the reserve is planned for June. The EIA report also projected world oil demand would increase from the current 76 million bpd to 118.9 million bpd by 2020, due to higher demand in the United States and developing countries in the Pacific Rim, and Central and South America. OPEC oil production is expected to reach 57.5 million bpd in two decades, up from the cartel's 30 million bpd this year.
Other highlights of the EIA forecast were: * Coal remains the primary fuel for U.S. electricity generation, although its share is projected to decline from 52 percent in 2000 to 46 percent by 2020. * Natural gas demand will increase by 50 percent by 2020, largely due to its popularity as a fuel for U.S. electricity generation. * Carbon dioxide emissions from U.S. fuel consumption will reach 2,088 million tones by 2020, 54 percent higher than the 1,352 tones in 1990. * Nuclear generating capacity will decline because of the high cost to maintain aging U.S. nuclear power plants.
