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Re: The attacks on Chipotle. (Score: 0)
by Anonymous on Friday, November 07, 2003 @ 10:13:04 EST
Baldy.. please see:


| Parent

This is not how to do capacity planning (Score: 0)
by Anonymous on Friday, November 07, 2003 @ 12:39:27 EST
A home using 24kWh/day is not using 1kW at all times, but often little and sometimes more than 5kW. If you want to balance the load out over the day you need a UPS that costs more than the stated cost of the Edison. The cost calculation leaves the battery backup and inverter system out.

Baldy, you are going to lose $20k on your first installation. And then they are going to call you back in a week when it stops working.

| Parent

Corrections to cost calculator (Score: 1)
by chipotle_pickle on Friday, November 07, 2003 @ 15:07:02 EST
(User Info | Send a Message) http://freehydrogen.blogspot.com
Thanks to the folks (Baldy and Cage) who posted this in various forums. Lets work from the last calculation up since the last mistakes are smaller and simpler.

They use an example of a $2992.50 system with a "projected" life of 20 years and equate that to a cost of $15 per month. Using a 20 year mortgage calculator: http://www.tcalc.com/tvwww.dll?CalcLoan, and assuming a fixed 8.0% interest rate (darn low) I get $25. To get $15, I have to assume a 1.9% interest rate, which is just too low. So a better estimate is 70% over what they state (this will be cumulative).

A bigger mistake is that they use the average power usage to determine the power required. You have to add up all the devices you might reasonably use at any one time and get enough power for that. For someone who is careful about what they have running, 5kW should be enough. For a person who who has his breadmaker, dryer and dishwasher duke it
out with the AC while he vacuums, it would need to be 2X or 3X that. If we just use 5kW, that would seem to equate to 120 kWh/day, or about 4X what GWE estimates. Now maybe they intend for the Edison to power a rechargeable battery storage system, so the batteries even out the load, but they don't include the cost of those batteries. If we assume they mean for batteries to even things out, they are off by a factor of 2, otherwise, a factor of 4. Also they are leaving out the cost of the inverter, for which I get 6.5k

so that's another factor of 2 to add in. So now we have a 70% increase for proper amortization and a 4X-6X for undersizing and missing parts. So assuming the Edison works like they say it does, it's still going to cost 5-10X what they say it will.

But lets go a bit farther. How reasonable is the $112.50 for 1 kWh / day figure? Pricing 1 kW fuel cells at http://www.fuelcellstore.com/cgi-bin/fuelweb/view=subcat/cat=23/subcat=27, I see fuel cells going for over $4k/ kW. GWE seems to be off by another factor of 2 here.

Of course this is all based on the notion that the gCells will last 20 years, which is completely untested, unverified, unsupportable, and unmotivated fantasy. But even if they did, the $15 per month estimate is missing a zero at the end.

| Parent


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