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    The Earth today stands in imminent peril
    Posted on Tuesday, June 19, 2007 @ 23:26:48 GMT by vlad

    General ...and nothing short of a planetary rescue will save it from the environmental cataclysm of dangerous climate change. Those are not the words of eco-warriors but the considered opinion of a group of eminent scientists writing in a peer-reviewed scientific journal.

    By Steve Connor, Science Editor Published: 19 June 2007 (The Independent UK)

    Six scientists from some of the leading scientific institutions in the United States have issued what amounts to an unambiguous warning to the world: civilisation itself is threatened by global warming.

    They also implicitly criticise the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for underestimating the scale of sea-level rises this century as a result of melting glaciers and polar ice sheets.

    Instead of sea levels rising by about 40 centimetres, as the IPCC predicts in one of its computer forecasts, the true rise might be as great as several metres by 2100. That is why, they say, planet Earth today is in "imminent peril".

    In a densely referenced scientific paper published in the Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A some of the world's leading climate researchers describe in detail why they believe that humanity can no longer afford to ignore the "gravest threat" of climate change.

    "Recent greenhouse gas emissions place the Earth perilously close to dramatic climate change that could run out of control, with great dangers for humans and other creatures," the scientists say. Only intense efforts to curb man-made emissions of carbon dioxide emissions and other greenhouse gases can keep the climate within or near the range of the past one million years, they add.

    The researchers were led by James Hansen, the director of Nasa's Goddard Institute for Space Studies, who was the first scientist to warn the US Congress about global warming.

    The other scientists were Makiko Sato, Pushker Kharecha and Gary Russell, also of the Goddard Institute, David Lea of the University of California, Santa Barbara, and Mark Siddall of the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory at Columbia University in New York.

    In their 29-page paper, "Climate Change and trace gases", the scientists frequently stray from the non-emotional language of science to emphasise the scale of the problems and dangers posed by climate change.

    In an email to The Independent, Dr Hansen said: "In my opinion, among our papers this one probably does the best job of making clear that the Earth is getting perilously close to climate changes that could run out of our control."

    The unnatural "forcing" of the climate as a result of man-made emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases threatens to generate a "flip" in the climate that could "spark a cataclysm" in the massive ice sheets of Antarctica and Greenland, the scientists write.

    Dramatic flips in the climate have occurred in the past but none has happened since the development of complex human societies and civilisation, which are unlikely to survive the same sort of environmental changes if they occurred now.

    "Civilisation developed, and constructed extensive infrastructure, during a period of unusual climate stability, the Holocene, now almost 12,000 years in duration. That period is about to end," the scientists warn. Humanity cannot afford to burn the Earth's remaining underground reserves of fossil fuel. "To do so would guarantee dramatic climate change, yielding a different planet from the one on which civilisation developed and for which extensive physical infrastructure has been built," they say.

    Dr Hansen said we have about 10 years to put into effect the draconian measures needed to curb CO2 emissions quickly enough to avert a dangerous rise in global temperature. Otherwise, the extra heat could trigger the rapid melting of polar ice sheets, made far worse by the "albedo flip" - when the sunlight reflected by white ice is suddenly absorbed as ice melts to become the dark surface of open water.

    The glaciers and ice sheets of Greenland in the northern hemisphere, and the western Antarctic ice sheet in the south, both show signs of the rapid changes predicted with rising temperatures. "

    The albedo flip property of ice/water provides a trigger mechanism. If the trigger mechanism is engaged long enough, multiple dynamical feedbacks will cause ice sheet collapse," the scientists say. "We argue that the required persistence for this trigger mechanism is at most a century, probably less."

    The latest assessment of the IPCC published earlier this year predicts little or no contribution to 21st century sea level from Greenland or Antarctica, but the six scientists dispute this interpretation. "The IPCC analyses and projections do not well account for the nonlinear physics of wet ice sheet disintegration, ice streams and eroding ice shelves, nor are they consistent with the palaeoclimate evidence we have presented for the absence of discernible lag between ice sheet forcing and sea-level rise," the scientists say.

    Their study looked back over more than 400,000 years of climate records from deep ice cores and found evidence to suggest that rapid climate change over a period of centuries, or even decades, have in the past occurred once the world began to heat up and ice sheets started melting. It is not possible to assess the dangerous level of man-made greenhouse gases.

    "However, it is much lower than has commonly been assumed. If we have not already passed the dangerous level, the energy infrastructure in place ensures that we will pass it within several decades," the scientists say in their findings.

    "We conclude that a feasible strategy for planetary rescue almost surely requires a means of extracting [greenhouse gases] from the air."

    Source: http://environment.independent.co.uk/climate_change/article2675747.ece

    (Thanx Overtone).


     
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    "The Earth today stands in imminent peril" | Login/Create an Account | 5 comments | Search Discussion
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    Re: The Earth today stands in imminent peril (Score: 1)
    by dobermanmacleod on Wednesday, June 20, 2007 @ 00:37:14 GMT
    (User Info | Send a Message)
    That's right folks: "We conclude that a feasible strategy for planetary rescue almost surely requires a means of extracting [greenhouse gases] from the air."

    For all those greenies who insist that the only prescription must be the weak mitigation strategy of cutting emissions, you are advocating an unrealistic solution because there is virtually no way that mankind will cut their greenhouse gas emissions so fast and so severely that abrupt climate change and runaway global warming will be avoided.

    I suggest improving nature's ability to remove the CO2 from the air using genetic engineering-perhaps seeding a GMO into the ocean.  Biosequestration is a low cost, extremely scalable, and technically feasible method of removing vast quantities of greenhouse gases from the air.

    By the way, mechanical sequestration is extremely expensive to build and operate, and is very difficult to duplicate on a large scale-even point of emissions carbon capture and storage (CCS).  In other words, the only way that mankind could even come close to cutting their emissions so fast and severely is to immediately stop building non-CCS coal-fired plants, which is obviously a non-strarter.



    'CO2' Climate Change is a SCAM (Score: 1)
    by Kadamose on Wednesday, June 20, 2007 @ 09:54:45 GMT
    (User Info | Send a Message)
    When are people going to wake the fuck up and realize that the whole Global Warming fiasco has been turned into a religion and is completely fraudulant? The whole point of scaring everyone with the CO2 myth, is so that the echelons in power can create what is known as the Carbon Tax - which, in turn, will lead to MASSIVE profits. It's quite genius if you think about it, considering every living organism on this planet emits CO2 in some form or another; in fact, it's almost as genius as creating money from thin air -- which is what every single bank in this world does.

    I'm not denying Global Warming -- it's definitely here, but it's a natural process caused by the SUN. What I am denying, however, is CO2 caused Global Warming -- there is simply NO scientific evidence to back this up. None. Zilch. The global warming that is happening now is a natural process; the world is changing and evolving and nothing can stop it.

    This does not mean that I endorse our inferior, dirty technologies - in fact, these need to be disposed of at ALL costs, not because they supposedly contribute to the global warming scam, but because they contribute to the decline of the overall health of this planet...and the health of the human species, in general.

    Wake up, people.





    Re: The Earth today stands in imminent peril (Score: 1)
    by DrColes on Wednesday, June 20, 2007 @ 10:16:11 GMT
    (User Info | Send a Message)
    Please do your homework before this costs you your economies.


    My point in all of this is that CO2 does NOT cause climate change; I am not arguing that a change in the climate might be occurring.  The climate on earth changes all the time and that global change is caused by the Sun (a new NASA finding).  All life on the planet is carbon based, CO2 is part of our food chain, and it is not a pollutant.  The biggest “green house gas” is water vapor.  If climate change is caused by human activity then we would need to start eliminating life on the planet, yes this is absurd, so is the assertion that humans are causing climate change.  It just is NOT the truth. 

     


    Additional information http://www.InteliOrg.com/co2_climate_change.html [www.inteliorg.com]



    Re: The Earth today stands in imminent peril (Score: 1)
    by malc on Thursday, June 21, 2007 @ 00:58:53 GMT
    (User Info | Send a Message) http://web.ukonline.co.uk/mripley
    Interesting that the GWS crew are out in force here with the first 3 totally ficticious replies!  Honestly can these people read?

    I noticed the response that "man can provide the solution" to excess CO2, what utter nonsense and completely ignores the fact that whenever man tries to counteract nature he f...s up big time.  The solution is simple allow nature to do its job by a) not producing excess CO2, nature can accommodate some excess but we have gone beyond that b) stop destroying the natural mechanisms (and you want to build articial ones...dumb dumb dumb)

    The SUN is the cause.....yawn yawn yawn. Jesus read the goddam reports. Not the cherry picked paragraphs that the skeptics regurgitate all the time but the FULL COMPLETE study.

    CO2 is a tax making scheme. No, its bleedin cop out allowing companies to continue to pollute by trading with natural mechanisms.  The coal burning mega polluter "trades" CO2 emissions with sea loch plankton farmer . well excuse me but isn't plankton part of the natural process and thus should be excluded from the trading equation???? The only "trades" should be between unnatural producers and unnatural sinks of CO2 DUH!

    Oh forgot to say : global warming solutions are being ignored because oil produces trillions in tax revenues. But hey all hail mamon.

    With ideas, misconceptions and denial like that expressed above is it any wonder man is heading towards a catastrophe.

    One thing I do agree with : we will not solve the global warming problem. We will attempt to do so but decades too late. I am keeping my eye out for the best solution for my family given that the idiots here still have the ear of enough politicians.  In fact doesn't the alarm bells start wringing on that one fact.  Polticians like short term easy solutions that win them the next election. They are not interested or try to avoid long term problems until it is unavoidable. Look where we are : years of denial and avoidance, still ongoing in the US but the unavoidable is being noticed outside the US.

    Will this change the mind of the blind fools above - no chance. Will this change the minds of the short term looking after number 1 politician - no chance. Will this change the mind of the armchair experts with limited reading capabilities - no chance. Am I angry - you bet. My children have a bleak future (avoidable but less so day by day) thanks to you idiots and I'll make sure they know who you are!

    In fact that's a good idea : build a website with a list of the man made global warming deniers so that our children have a reference list to vent their anger at in the future. Hmmm.



     

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