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Climate predictions grim, but no surprise
Posted on Saturday, April 07, 2007 @ 00:21:22 UTC by vlad
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Climate change will wipe out 20 to 30 per cent of all life forms and
flood hundreds of millions of people from their homes, according to
early reports from a new study by the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change.
The study, to be released Friday, will detail the global effects of
climate change. In Canada, temperatures will rise, twice as many forest
fires will occur and melting permafrost are predicted. Globally, rising
sea levels will drive hundreds of millions of people from their homes.
Grim as the predictions are, they come as no surprise to University of
Alberta researchers investigating the effects of climate change. "These
kinds of predictions have been around for some time," said renowned
water ecologist Dr. David Schindler, who contributed to the report.
"River flows are declining in most part of the world," said
Schindler, the U of A's Killam Memorial Chair and Professor of Ecology.
"That is partly due to warming and partly due to human uses, like
damming and withdrawals."
All of which is translating into water scarcity.
"I have done a bit of work in these water budgets for rivers in the
West and that is clearly the case here" said Schindler. "The
Saskatchewan Glacier, which feeds our own river running through
Edmonton, has lost about 25 per cent of its mass in less than a century
. . . and in the U.S., they're predicting that Glacier National Park
won't have any glaciers by the year 2030."
Those findings are confirmed by research conducted by Dr. Martin
Sharp, chair of the U of A Department of Earth and Atmospheric
Sciences.
Sharp has seen the effects of climate change on glaciers in the
Arctic, B.C. and the Yukon. The situation has already passed a critical
point in the West, where glaciers are losing more mass during summer
melt-offs than they gain during winter snowfalls.
"There is no question there has been trend of glacial wastages over
the last 50 -150 years, and that is a product of a warming climate,"
said Sharp.
The implications are twofold: in one respect, warmer temperatures
melt glaciers and the runoff contributes to rising sea levels. The
other effect - more specific to the Prairies - is in the availability
of water.
Equally dramatic effects of climate change have been documented by
Dr. Stan Boutin, a professor in the U of A Department of Biological
Sciences.
Boutin spearheaded research that uncovered the first evidence of a genetic response to climate change.
In 2003, Boutin and his research team published findings that
showed red squirrels in the southwest Yukon had changed their breeding
habits in response to warmer weather conditions. The changes in
behaviour were more profound than mere modified habits due to
temperature.
Boutin's team discovered that the change was genetic and had in
fact been driven not by temperature change, but by the effect
temperature change was having on the environment - warmer, drier
seasons had resulted in food becoming available earlier in the year.
The squirrels adapted to the change in food availability genetically.
The scientists say conservation is the key to mitigating the impact of climate change.
Schindler adds that besides cutting fossil fuel use, we need to
conserve water - and protect the natural landscapes, which help
preserve water.
"One of the things I have been pressing for, especially in Alberta,
is water conservation both in our use and in the landscapes that help
conserve our water - wetlands and the riparian zones along rivers," he
said.
"In addition to all of the high use we have of water, we are also
destroying the watersheds that protect it and protect us from flooding.
The irony is that a lot of places that are getting less precipitation
are also getting more flooding because we're ripping out wetlands and
when there is a heavy rainfall all the water goes straight to the
nearest river."
Sharp says that, even in situations in which resources such as
water and energy are abundant, it makes sense to use them efficiently.
As things stand, we need to become more judicious in our use of these
resources in order to mitigate the effects of climate change.
"We are running out of water but it is not just due to climate
change, demand is increasing substantially. What we can do is make sure
we are as efficient as possible so when we use it we are not wasting
it," he said. "And we have to recognize in the long run fossil fuels
are not going to be the dominant form of energy, and it doesn't hurt to
look at and implement alternatives now. It's just the intelligent thing
to do."
Source: University of Alberta
Via http://www.physorg.com/news95082144.html
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Climate change will hit the world's poorest people the hardest, international experts meeting in Brussels said Friday.
See also: Climate change to hit poorest hardest
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Re: Climate predictions grim, but no surprise (Score: 1)
by deatopmg on Sunday, April 08, 2007 @ 15:14:40 UTC
(User Info | Send a Message) | These are the same predictions that we (who are old enough) heard about in the '60's and 70's from Paul Ehrlich and friends: "the sky is falling, the sky is falling" - and they were 100% WRONG! Only back then it was the beginning of a new ice age.
The IPCC document is totally political. The vast majority of scientists involved make their livelyhood by being alarmist and therefore their opinions must be discounted in the same way as scientists supported by the energy industry. "Send money, send money" we've got to study the problem more.
Once both money dependent sides are eliminated and we listen to the middle we find that the earth appears to be warming very slowly...all naturally. And all natural MUST be good. GHG's are little involved.
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