by David Strahan (BBC News)
Many people think that running out of oil, or "peak
oil", would be good for the climate. In his new book The Last Oil
Shock, David Strahan begs to differ; he suggests it may bring
catastrophe.
It is becoming increasingly clear that global oil
production will soon go into terminal decline, with potentially
devastating economic consequences.
Although the idea of peak oil has traditionally been
ridiculed by the industry, now even some of the world's most senior
oilmen concede the case.
Last year Thierry Desmarest, chairman of Total, the
world's fourth largest oil company, declared that production would peak
by around 2020.
He urged governments to find ways to suppress oil demand growth and put off the witching hour.
Other forecasters are convinced the peak date is even closer.
But many environmentalists continue to resist the idea.
Some seem to suspect that anybody who argues that oil
production is set to fall must be a closet climate change denier with a
secret agenda.
Others, like Stephen Tindale of Greenpeace,
instinctively distrust forecasts of an imminent peak, but wish
fervently that it would come soon.
"Let's hope that the oil does run out", he told me, "and
that the world has to develop alternatives to oil seriously quickly,
and from a climate point of view that would be an excellent outcome."
Neither position could be more wrong.
Dirty growth
It is mathematically impossible that peak oil will solve climate change...
Full story: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/6505127.stm
