Scott Simpson, Vancouver Sun/
Published: Saturday, September 23, 2006
Humanity's darkest hour may be just decades away, touched off by a
desperate and increasingly violent struggle for energy resources.
Futurist scenarios examined by the International Energy Agency,
Shell Oil, a Stockholm-based think-tank, and others see "grim"
prospects for civilization if nations fail to manage a smooth
transition to new energy systems as conventional fossil fuel supplies
dwindle.
An energy demand study prepared by the Organization for Economic
Cooperation and Development sees the period between 2010 and 2020 as
pivotal to efforts to successfully adapt to new systems that lessen the
world's dependence on oil and reduce the impact that fossil fuel
combustion has on the climate.
It is expected that without action to curb greenhouse gas emissions,
fossil fuel combustion will increase concentrations of carbon dioxide
and other gases in the Earth's atmosphere, diminishing food production
from both agriculture and fisheries as well as reducing the
availability of fresh water.
Optimistic scenarios assume an easy transition to other sources of
energy -- including the gasification of coal and its widespread
adoption as a replacement for gasoline.
But those scenarios also rely on an unprecedented new era of
cooperation among already developed nations, ambitious developing
nations, and oil-rich nations that, to date, have put national
interests ahead of those of their trading partners.
More gloomy scenarios anticipate heightened conflict as developed
nations attempt to lock down supplies of energy on behalf of their own
constituents.
Meanwhile, countries with fewer financial resources face revolution
and collapse as climate change hampers their ability to produce food.
The Stockholm Environment Institute, whose forecasts have often been
cited by the International Energy Agency, anticipates social,
environmental, economic, institutional and resource "stress" -- and
"dangers" -- without a transformation to more sustainable energy
systems.
Tensions will rise between have and have-not populations inside and
outside existing national borders, leading to "generalized societal
disorder, loss of governance and regional fragmentation."
Privileged "actors" including regions, countries and multinational
corporations would be moved to protect their own interests by
"entrenching themselves in bubbles of wealth" that exclude the majority
of the world's population from access to strategic resources.
Alternatively, the powerful elite will find themselves unable to
contain "the tide of violence" arising from extreme inequity in energy
supply -- or competition from rival groups.
Multiple stresses including pollution, climate change and ecosystem degradation will amplify the opportunity for conflict.
Some scenarios envision increasingly violent waves of global
terrorism -- with large and motivated groups of militants using
biological and nuclear weapons with catastrophic effects against their
supposed oppressors.
The crisis "spins out of control," a "planetary emergency" is
declared, and authoritarian regimes crack the whip in even the most
privileged enclaves.
In the worst case, the world suffers a generalized breakdown of
civilization including "general disintegration of social, cultural and
political institutions, de-industrialization and technological
regression."
"Breakdown could persist for decades before social evolution to
higher levels of civilization again becomes possible," says a paper
written by Stockholm Environment Institute program director Gilberto
Gallopin.
ssimpson@png.canwest.com
Source: http://www.canada.com/vancouversun/story.html?id=d43f441b-3a05-4158-b66b-9a723f4a069a
